What will my property really be worth in 2026? Why online valuations often raise false expectations

Anyone thinking about selling in Munich in 2026 will usually quickly end up using an online calculator. Enter the address, click on the living space, and the result appears and feels surprisingly concrete.

The problem is that market value is not a calculation tool result. A tool can provide a rough guide, but it is no substitute for real comparative purchases or a property-specific valuation. This is because “value” is not created in a browser, but on the market: through buyer behavior, financing, micro-location, condition, condominium association situation, energy ratings, and ultimately through the price that is actually paid by a notary.

Why “the value” in 2026 is rarely clear-cut

Many owners are looking for a single figure. In practice, there are often two:

• Guideline value (quick, rough, data-based – e.g., online estimate)
• Market value/fair market value (reliable, traceable, based on a specific date)

Legally, the benchmark is the fair market value (market value): it is based on market conditions on the specific date and the actual condition of the property.

Market value vs. asking price: Where online tools can be misleading

Online valuations typically use statistical models, average data, and limited input. What is often missing are the value-determining details that can quickly add up to five- or six-figure differences in Munich.

Typical causes of false expectations:

• Micro-location is too roughly depicted (street side, noise, orientation, inner courtyard vs. main street).
• Condition/renovation is underestimated (bathroom/kitchen/electrical, energy status, modernization status).
• WEG factors are missing (reserves, resolutions, special assessments,
  maintenance backlog).
• Asking prices are confused with market value (advertisement ≠ notarized purchase price).
• The purpose of the tool is not always neutral: Online valuations are often marketing tools for lead generation and often only provide a rough price estimate.

Important: An asking price is a marketing decision. The purchase price is only determined once a notarized agreement has been reached.

What constitutes a reliable property valuation in Munich

A reliable valuation is based as far as possible on actual
transaction data – not just on advertisements. This is precisely why expert committees are so important: they compile purchase price data on the basis of notarized purchase agreements and can provide information within regulated limits.

For owners, this means that if someone provides a “market-driven” valuation, they should be able to explain

• which comparative cases (or which market parameters) were used,
• which cut-off date applies and
• which property characteristics drive or depress the value.

The three recognized methods and when each is appropriate

The German Real Estate Valuation Ordinance (ImmoWertV) lists the following as the basic methods: comparative value, income value and asset value methods (also combined).

In brief and in practical terms:

• Comparative value method: ideal if there are sufficient comparable sales (typically: condominiums in Munich with good data availability).
• Income approach: relevant for rented properties/investments – sustainable rent, management costs, and market returns are important here.
• Asset value approach: more common for single-family/two-family houses or special properties without good comparability; it is based, among other things, on construction costs and land value (with market adjustment).

Mnemonic: The method is not an end in itself, but must be appropriate for the property and the market in Munich.

Practical check: How owners can arrive at a reliable market value

If you want to take real estate valuation in Munich seriously, this brief roadmap will help:

1) Clarify your goal
Is it about sales price strategy, asset overview, inheritance arrangements, or divorce? The depth varies depending on the purpose.

2) Complete your documentation (saves time and increases accuracy)
Land registry extract, declaration of division/WEG minutes (for condominiums), living space calculation, year of construction/modernizations, energy performance certificate/consumption data, rental agreements (if rented).

3) Establish comparability
Not “Munich on average,” but: micro-location, condition, amenities, maintenance fees/WEG, parking space, balcony/terrace, elevator, orientation, noise.

4) Demand valuation logic
A reputable valuation can justify why surcharges/discounts are applied and what market data is behind them (e.g., purchase price data/appraisal committee logic).

5) Understand the result as a range
In 2026 in particular, a value range is often more honest than a “pinpoint landing” – because buyer budgets, the supply situation, and the property story (presentation/marketing) influence the final price.

Classification

Online tools can serve as an initial point of reference. However, those who make sales decisions based on an automated figure risk false expectations, long marketing times, and unnecessary price negotiations.

A reliable market value is derived from genuine market data, an appropriate valuation method, and careful consideration of your property, rather than from a calculation tool.